Saturday, October 16, 2004

Netflix,TiVo and Six degrees of separation

It was interesting to see NetFlix lower their fees in response to Amazon's entry into the market - no wait... on rumors of entry into the market. The stock market reacted immediately to the news and dropped the price by 40% in one day. Why in the world would you want to do that ?

As I dug deeper into this mystery some things became clearer: Leslie Kilgore - the CMO of NetFlix previously served as the director of marketing in - none other than - Amazon.com! Wonder what her buddies warned her. Something so strong that NetFlix decides to cancel their UK launch and focus on the core US market. Hmmm...

On the other hand, TiVo and Netflix announced that they would jointly develop a product to download movies over the internet. And the driver of this deal: TiVo Chief Executive Mike Ramsay who also happens to sit on the board of directors for Netflix. To Mr. Ramsay's credit however he resigned from the board as soon as a"commercial" deal was made. Does this make the situation ethical ? hmmm...

Let's see another director : Richard Barton who sits on several board including the IAC. What - never heard of it ? Here's a summary from stockhouse:

IAC/InterActiveCorp is the world's leading multi-brand interactive commerce company. IAC consists of IAC Travel, which includes Expedia, Inc., Hotels.com, Hotwire, Interval International, and TV Travel Shop; HSN; Ticketmaster, which oversees ReserveAmerica; Match.com; LendingTree; Precision Response Corporation; IAC Local and Media Services, which includes Citysearch, Evite, Entertainment Publications, Inc. and TripAdvisor, Inc.; and IAC Interactive Development which includes ZeroDegrees.

Here's my prediction then: Prepare to see more of Netflix in not only consumer households, but in hotels as well. Imagine a world where your rating,preferences and queues travel with you around the world. All hotels that you stay in are linked to NetFlix's servers to beam you the next movie you are interested in. TiVo already knows your habits, Netflix wil help propagate it.

And all because of six degrees of separation.

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Collaboration Tools for Product Management

For those of you in product management, collaboration is key to identifying trends, gathering requirements, peer validation and basically having a single repository for information.

The issue with today's PLM (product life cycle management) tools is that they rely heavily on workflow processes, and expect documents attached at every step of the workflow to some how assist in collaboration. The fundamental problem with this approach is that even though process is very important when the requirements become clear, the chaos during the collection phase needs to be better facilitated- so that the important information floats to the top, and the rest can be at the bottom as a lower priority.

So when a tool like JotSpot came to my attention - I grabbed it for a trial run. So far - it addresses some real cool areas and is based on the wildly popular WiKi methodology, except that the founders talk about building enterprise applications on top of this.

There are several tools that offer the "workspace" centric approach - for e.g. Groove, Lotus Notes, Discussion groups etc that allow threaded conversations and searching across them. What is needed is a channel agnostic way to aggregate content (which Jot allows by integrating with email, RSS, web pages etc), and web service based external integration.

The founders in their conversation with Jon Udell seem to have missed the point about the key applicability in the enterprise space, but focus on a enabling Wikis as a quick development tools for specific business apps. This will point them against standard development tools vendors like IBM, BEA etc with far greater resources that they have, however innovative this product currently is.

What Jot needs is to clearly define what business market they want to go after, with tools to simplify adoption and more user interfaces. Editing a page and adding code may be a piece of cake for a developer but try showing the demo to a sales rep and sees if s/he'll dig it !

However, it is a great concept and I look forward to the founders repositioning this from something that is universally useful to nobody, to mission critical for somebody.

Call me if you need my help!

Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Tough to be in IT

Look at the landscape if you are in IT today - vendors like PeopleSoft want to make it easier to use their applications, product managers are supposed to know their target users, goals and behaviors - so much so that the need for IT should be minimal. Your management is looking at the cost and feels that outsourcing of "non-strategic" tasks is the best strategy - except that 80% of the people in your company IT fall into that bucket. Look at your user community - they are never happy with the performance, usability, scalabilty of any thing you implement, especially a new application.

Painted this way, it really looks like the perfect storm. So is it the end of IT (as Nick Carr so infamously put it) ?

My answer - absolutely not! There is a LONG way to go as a hi-tech culture before we can even write IT off. My experiences with IT folks in companies show some revealing characteristics:

a. Vendors are light years behind providing the "perfect" solution

Yes - all the plans talk about making IT obsolete, putting the power in the hands of the business users ( like allowing end users to execute DML statements on the fly in production - ya you heard me right!) still leaves a lot to be desired. And why is that ? The key reason I see is due to the multiple points of failure in any complex application - there are just too many variables that the vendors cant design/test/foresee in a controlled lab environment. For eg. the exact mix of the platform, database, hardware, software version, skillset of IT, skillset of user will always yeild different permutations on how the software eventually ends up behaving. And who can help fix this - IT.

b. IT outsourcing

This is a hotly debated topic. While it is true that IT infrastructure has elements that can be outsourced, the competitive edge that a company derives by keeping resources onsite, well paid and motivated cannot be easily duplicated. Business Agility. What wins in the market is the ability to experiment, react quickly to feedback and experiment again. Outsource your IT and you are stuck with "standards" - the standards that once gave you a competitive edge are now becoming strait jackets - driven by vendors that serve only one agenda - theirs.

c. Business community - IT's customers

I was recently in a conversation where the business users were completely livid due to a migration to a newer system, touting the strengths of the older one, even though the newer system addressed 80% of the key pain points. Why is that ? Because change is hard. IT folks need to spend a lot of time with the end user community in recuriting leaders, educating them about the change well in advance and getting buy-in. Lets face - NO software will solve problems, people do. Its important not to ignore this fact and put in change management in your project plan.

So is IT needed. As far as I can see - absolutely! Will it be needed in 10 years ? perhaps. But that is another article all by itself...

Sunday, October 10, 2004

Innovation and Microsoft

Robert Scoble's website has an interesting discussion of what Microsoft's contribution to innovation is. Ok most of them are MS bashers who are critical about their "embrace, extend, extinguish" strategy, and argue that almost all innovations are NIH - "Not invented here".

While I agree with most products that the MS bashers talked about, the one attribute that MS has contributed IMHO is the user experience. It is an enviable competitive advantage that MS has to define the next generation of user interfaces in any application that continue to influence consumer and business applications.

Ok - I hear the Mac team screaming already - Notice I did not say that this honor belongs to MS alone.

Perhaps its the touch with the largest number of human beings on the planet that ever use a computer - the first learning with the MS UI suddenly raises the bar with all other applications that compete or that attemt to interact with a user. I have seen this many too often that the question posed is "Why can't you make it work like MS xxx" where xxx can be their favorite product.

In this new world of services-oriented architecture, the user interface title is again up for grabs. Can MS continue to dominate the interface standard with A2A (app-to-app) just as they did with usability for an end-user application? Hmmmm...


PeopleSoft Alumni Website

Steve Tennant, an ex-PeopleSoftie has created a new PeopleSoft Alumni website. This is absolutely great news and here's the blog to cast a vote in its favor!
The Wonderful World of Digital Photography and their Providers

Being a photography enthusiast, I'm really curious to see how the digitial photography market is shaping up. There are the manufacturers - the Kodaks of the world - fim makers and camera makers - the Canon's of the world. There are the consumers - like you and me. And then there is the Internet for the new virtual showcase.

Lets briefly list the players here who want to be our virtual showcase : Ofoto, Snapfish, Yahoo! Photos.

And then there are ones who want to help "organize" our virtual shoebox - Google, TypePad(from MoveableType), Microsoft and of course the 800 lbs gorilla - Adobe.

And then starts the great convergence war. Kodak - the maker of traditional films wants to be the leader in the new digital medium to avoid obsolescence. They acquire Ofoto.

Google looks and this and says - hey! We are the leaders in search, so we should go acquire someone so that when people want to search for photos, they will absolutely use Google. And oh - let's make it available free of charge so that there the ultimate form of vendor lock-in - free funtional product with high emotional investment value.

So what is Microsoft doing - why researching to make this experience easier of course. In this article entitled "Life of a digital Photo" MS reasearchers are hard at work in crafting a next gen software called "Media Browser" - which BTW will be completely renamed when the product marketing guys get their hands on it - whic allows quick identification and classification of photos - time cluster views, subject/topic views etc.

Since classification is a primary nut to crack for all these management software, here's another vendor that claims to do this, ableit for web search. Now the prospects of lasting against Google or MS - you can guess.

The latest vendor to jump into this is Flickr. Offering tons of new services, this is a service I have my eyes on at the moment.

And there always are the niche vendors - PaintShop Pro, Adode and others who really want to stay on the tools side of the business in making the experience of editing photos much better rather than get on the search side of the business.

The real question is - is digital search the future of photos ? Perhaps. I'm not convinced yet that we have seen the end of the competition in this space. Im still expecting the digital version of Creative Memories, and the makers of shoeboxes to wake up one day and go "Hey - we need to go digital!".

What are the pre-reqs of this business - One is disk space, the other is computational capacity, third is management. So I would predict storage companies like EMC, Processors like Intel in the first two categories to do very well. The third layer of management is very muddy right now with all the vendors mentioned above.

Add to the vertical integration confusion strategy with all major vendors wanting a piece of this digital phot0 pie (including HP, and the ability for the iPod to store photos) will be very interesting to watch.

And not to forget - what about the cell phone manufacturers with embedded photo phones ? It is only a matter of time when Motorola and Samsung and others embed 3.1 Megapixel camera phones and then they demand management and organization tools as well.

So as consumers - the best is yet to come. Who would I bet on ? A vertically integrated cradle-to-grave company or pure photo management company ? Right now it would be the latter.

Thursday, October 07, 2004

Confessions of an IT Cook: Ingredients for a Service Oriented Architecture

So we have all heard this over and over. Here's the magic receipe for SOA, as per the industry :

Ingredients:
  • Multiple business applications, preferably residing in multiple databases
  • Lots of platforms
  • Lack of integrations, needing lots of manual scrubbing and redundant data entry
  • lack of standardized processes
  • Lack of common definition of fundamental constructs like Customer, Product, Item
Steps to a perfect solution:
  • First, identify all discrete business steps within every application
  • Create web services !
  • Now mix all the web services in all the apps together and shake well
  • Make sure that you pour this into a container that can hold all of them - call it the "orchestrator", "glue", "process integrator" or whatever
  • Now slap on various user interfaces on top of this and call them "consumers"
  • Just for fun, sprinkle some "business process tools" on top of this and let your end business users run amok with the combinations, just like a kid in a candy store who wants a mixture of jelly beans !
  • After this, all you need is to examine how great your culinary skills are - just use a "business activity monitor" and if the tempearture drops or rises above thresholds - just set off an "exception workflow" and you are all set!
So - what am I missing ?

IP Telephony and Web Callbacks

An interesting technology gap exists the innovators of IP technology and the adopters in the Enterprise - specifically referring to the multitude of contact centers and helpdesks. As Jon Udell mentions in this article there is a big difference between computer telephony and IP telephony - nowhere bigger is the contrast in the enterprise consumers. The big problem does boil down to the inability to articulate business benefits brought on by cool technology.

Why are vendors like Genesys, Cisco and Avaya still able to convince enterprises to cough up millions of dollars (no kidding there) and still charge the antiquated "per-seat" licensing ? What is per seat when there are virtual call centers, work-from-home agents and the like ? Isn't it only logical for these enterprises to seriously look for open source linux-based solutions that are fundamentally cheaper and more easily tailorable ? No - not yet! The main reasons are as old as the open source v/s commercial battle with one twist - the business leaders in the call center have not yet come to appreciate the benefits of technology.

The argument is that the demographic of future customers for customer support is changing - the workforce of the future will be younger, will demand more channels and more flexibility in how problems get resolved. Why wait on hold for 30 minutes when I can schedule a web callback ? How about IM'ing me when you have resolved a problem ? Send me a text message if you can find me online. These are very plausible scenarios that will not be addressed by enterprises with their wait and watch strategy.

In the meantime, the tech divide will continue to manifest as one of the most annoying problems in civilized society today - customers waiting for a human touch. With the over emphasis on automation in the form of self service, Natural language processing (NLP) etc it's ironic that the same crowd has placed an over-reliance of technology in one area to effectively alienate themselves from the very audience they were expected to serve - the customer.



Sunday, October 03, 2004

Now Amazon gets into Search...

I find it amazing that the equivalent of the OS battles of the past, and the browser wars is now being played out as search wars.

The undisputed king of search of course is Google, but now that they are public - the real question in management's mind would be how do you make this profitable?

One approach that they seem to be taking to become the operating system of the Internet. Which means that they solve the fundamental problem of providing the connectivity and plumbing to retrieve information - become a platform of some sort. All the other companies like Amazon with their latest spinoff A9 is planning to wrap content around the search OS.

And thus starts the grand convergence. Yahoo! Search takes on Google, Microsoft takes on Google and Yahoo!, and content again threatens to be king. Yahoo! has a great headstart from a Portal perspective ( is it just search in a different way?) and is what A9 trying to do here similar to Yahoo! ?

What is the competitive entry barrier for A9 ? In my mind - it will be access to content. Amazon has the proprietary technology that lets you search "Inside the Book" that Yahoo! does not have currently. Comparing apples-to-apples, the winner in this case would be determined by whether you are interested in searching for public domain (a.k.a free) information that is aggregated in a single place with some value added relevancy checks, or copyrighted content (such as books) where there is an e-commerce aspect to the right to view/consume it.

We'll be watching!
Any Email or Collaboration product managers reading this?

Harvard Business Review ran a recent article called Why Your E-mail Requests Are Ignored that claimed the degree of effectiveness of an email is inversely proportional to the number of recepients being addressed to. This means - you have a better chance of response when you send a note out to one person, than to four people.

How many times have you been faced with this situation: You need to send the same email to 10 people, with the same content with perhaps a change of the name, and still follow the effectiveness principle stated above?

Today there are a few options, in increasing degrees of complexity :
a. Copy and paste the name in Notes/Outlook
b. Use fancy mail merge in Word to generate 10 copies
c. Use a CRM app - like PeopleSoft, that has correspondence mgmnt and online marketing for mass email generation

I'm surprised that short of a BCC option which is really ugly, this is a simple mail requirement that has not been handled by any client that I have encountered so far. Have you ?

Monday, September 06, 2004

Here's a great collection of presentations at the SVPMA website.


Thursday, September 02, 2004

Innovation in large organizations

A new browser to challenge MS from Google?Its not surprising considering the latest hires, says NY Post. Adam Bosworth (who incidentally moved from BEA to Google) mentioned that the excitement of web services is not in the B2B space, but in the B2C space - "making apps that my mom can use" - as he put it.

So what does constitute an innovative company ? The age old formula of attracting the best industry talent, providing them a sandbox to tryout concepts, a fundamental tolerance toward failure, rapid productization of ones that work, clear differentiation between core competencies and complementary competencies - and enabling easy access to complementary technolgies provided by partners will certainly help.

The Innovator's dilemma is a great book that talks about how bigger companies often stratgeically choose to ignore emerging technologies due to the low revenue stream during the inception stage and find that they have been superseded by the next generation of technology. A recommended read.


My take on this is that during periods of economic growth, companies often ignore the core competency model due to the inflow of cash that encourages risk in non core areas - a classic example is of GE acquiring an investment company, and in lean/declining growth go back to basics, "back into the box", "focus on fundamentals" - which seemed to be the theme at Connect anyways.

Monday, December 01, 2003

SearchCIO.com | Six decisions IT people shouldn't make

Extract, courtesy SearchCIO.com

Six decisions IT people shouldn't make

By John Hogan, SearchCIO.com News Editor
01 Dec 2003 | SearchCIO.com





IT professionals don't expect business executives to reboot servers or write lines of code. Conversely, senior managers shouldn't burden IT executives with critical business decisions related to IT.

Collaboration is vital to a successful relationship between IT and the business side of an organization, but there are good reasons for leaving IT out of the final say on some key matters involving IT, said Jeanne Ross, a principal research scientist at the Center for Information Systems Research at MIT's Sloan School of Management.

At a recent Gartner Inc. Web services conference in Baltimore, Ross offered her take on "six decisions that IT shouldn't make." She said that the first three are strategic decisions that involve IT strategy. The second three are executive decisions that revolve around IT implementation and execution. To make her point, Ross used several real-world examples of the good, the bad and the ugly.

1. How much should an organization spend on IT?

This is the basic question that comes up in any discussion about IT, Ross said, and it's one that often gives CIOs and IT managers nightmares. "Clearly, this is not a decision IT wants to make on its own," she said.

It's also a premature question to ask until an organization decides what it hopes to get out of an IT project.

For example, FedEx is only two-thirds the size of rival shipping company UPS, and yet both profess to spend about $1 billion a year on IT. That doesn't mean FedEx spends too much or UPS spends too little, Ross said. It simply means that they have different priorities to achieve different business goals. The former bases its IT decisions around a business model of providing niche services -- at a premium, of course -- to its customers. The latter uses IT to create new business efficiencies that drive down costs.

2. Which business processes should get IT funds?

Once the first question is answered, the challenge becomes how to divvy up the IT budget. Ross said that because many organizations have far more IT projects requests than they could possibly fund, decision gridlock becomes a problem. "What we found is that they end up not making any decisions and going for more than they can handle," she said.

An example is the case of Hershey Foods, which a few years ago tried to simultaneously implement ERP, CRM and supply chain management systems. What the candy giant ended up with was a crisis in which product deliveries were botched for the critical Halloween season.

The lesson here, Ross said, is that senior management needs to step in and decide what the organization's top IT priorities should be. "If we can't do everything, what can we do?" she said.

3. Which IT capabilities need to be company-wide?

It may seem like a great idea to have an IT system span the enterprise, but it's not always a good choice. Ross said. If IT makes this decision on its own, there's no guarantee that the business as a whole will benefit from it.

GTECH, a provider of lottery services to government agencies, has a strong incentive not to make mistake about which IT systems to deploy across the business. Many of its government contracts stipulate that GTECH will pay customers $10,000 for every minute of lottery system downtime.

"That gives them a lot of motivation to spend a lot of money making sure they have no downtime," Ross said. "Most organizations don't have that same motivation."

4. How good do an organization's IT resources need to be?

When Dow Corning deployed an ERP system, business management demanded that there be no downtime. The IT organization said that through disaster-recovery planning and backup systems, that was entirely possibly, but it would cost "an arm and a leg." Armed with that knowledge -- and two arms intact -- management was able to determine how much downtime it could realistically afford without having a negative impact on business operations. The answer? Four hours at a stretch.

5. What security and privacy risks will we accept?

Determining security and privacy risks are similar to determining levels of system reliability. Ross said. In this instance, however, it's a matter of both technology spending as well as expending time and effort to train users on policies and practices.

Last year, Yale University launched a Web site where applicants could enter their Social Security numbers and birth dates to find out whether they were among the lucky 10% to win acceptance. Unfortunately, since high school students often apply to several colleges, Ivy League rival Princeton had much of that data and beat some applicants to the punch. Fireworks graphics and a congratulatory greeting were displayed for only the first time the site was accessed, so some accepted students thought they hadn't made the cut.

The resulting controversy was a privacy nightmare for Yale and an ethical fiasco for Princeton, which suspended an admissions official over the incident.

"This was a case of senior management -- or at least business management -- not being involved in the design of the system and not thinking through, with IT, the privacy and security issues," Ross said.

6. Who should get the blame if an IT initiative fails?

This is perhaps the most important of all six critical IT decisions, Ross said. "Now, of course, the logical scapegoat has been and tends to be IT," she said.

Several years ago, when Patrick Zilvitis became CIO at Gillette, senior management told him that they wanted a PeopleSoft enterprise software system deployed company-wide. Such a deployment would have been difficult at best given the high degree of autonomy that Gillette's business units enjoy, but Zilvitis knew it would have been disastrous without a senior business sponsor. Because he was still in a honeymoon phase as CIO, Zilvitis was able to hold out until one vice president agreed that there was such a critical need for those applications that the VP would shoulder the responsibility. Ultimately, that VP realized that no one from IT would have been able to clear the business hurdles involved in the deployment.

The pain experienced by several companies in dealing with these six questions is a valuable lesson to the next generation of IT and business managers, Ross said.

"None of these decisions could be made without IT input, of course," she said. "IT needs to be there to explain the options, to explain what the technology can and can't, to highlight the costs.

"So IT plays a very important role in all of this, but if business managers don't make these decisions, it really doesn't matter what IT does. Nothing good will come of it."


Friday, November 28, 2003

This talks about how we have turned education into a kids race - where we believe that sooner they start, sooner they finish.... which is not true. I intend to follow David's readings more.

Much Too Early by David Elkind - Education Next - Summer 2001

Sunday, November 02, 2003

Good source of info on Port scans that I saw on my machine.
FAQ: Firewall Forensics (What am I seeing?)

Wednesday, October 29, 2003

Aberdeen Report on SIM
Enterprise Incentive Management: A Market on the Move
Intersting read.
CommentWire by Datamonitor - Indian call centers: cracks begin to show

Job disillusionment is perhaps the most general way to describe the problem facing India's call center workers. According to Manesh Mathew, director of HR consultancy PeopleEquity, "A number of unique factors peculiar to the call center work environment impact the call center professionals and their perception towards their work. These range across a gamut of human issues which include peculiar working hours, working days/holidays determined by geographic considerations, assuming pseudo identities, learning foreign accents, operating in alien business environment, altered social and family life, besides harboring the risk associated with working in a nascent industry."

Thursday, October 09, 2003

McD franchisee in Colo. routing orders through call center

Here's the text:

A McDonald's restaurant operator in Colorado is funneling customers' orders through a telephone call center to improve service speed and accuracy.

Here's how it works: Customers at six McDonald's restaurants in Colorado Springs, Colo., call in their orders on telephones sitting on each table.

The employees at the call center electronically relay the orders, as well as orders made at the drive-through, to the appropriate restaurant's kitchen. The orders appear on a screen in the kitchen, and identify the table or car where the order originated.

Inside the restaurants, McDonald's employees take the orders to the tables and collect payment. Customers at the drive-through pay for their orders and pick them up as they always have.

A seventh McDonald's restaurant, this one in Brainerd, Minn., recently set up the high-speed data line necessary to run its customer orders through the Colorado Springs call center.

Though the call center employs as many as eight workers -- it reaches a peak during busy times -- the system halves the 35 to 40 cents in costs that a restaurant normally incurs to take a customer order at the counter, said Craig Tengler, co-founder and chief marketing officer of Exit 41, an Andover, Mass.-based firm that supplies the system's software.

The call-center workers are trained to urge customers to buy more, so an average order is 10 to 15 cents greater under the new system than an order taken at the counter, Tengler said Wednesday.

Corporate executives in Oak Brook are impressed enough by Colorado Springs franchisee Steve Bigari's idea to expand the call-center test to as many as four additional restaurants by early 2004, said McDonald's spokesman Bill Whitman.

"We see that it has some potential to help reduce customer wait time," Whitman said, declining to release numbers. "It also reduces order time."

Those are magic words to McDonald's, which has consistently ranked at the bottom of customer service surveys and consistently lagged in speed-of-service surveys. CEO Jim Cantalupo, who took over in January, has begun efforts to grade each restaurant's quality and hold the managers accountable.

Bigari could not be reached for comment, but Tengler said Bigari intends to expand the initiative to include cell phones. It's hoped that by early next year, customers will be able to call in orders on their cell phones, with those calls also being routed to the call center, Tengler said.

One possibility is to let a customer hit a number on his cell phone to relay his most frequent order, without having to say anything.

The Colorado Springs restaurants already have set up new drive-through services to speed order times and improve accuracy.

Digital cameras are set up at the drive-throughs to take a photo of each car. The photo is matched to the order that the driver made.

The restaurants also feature new Zoom-throughs.

The Zoom-through drive-throughs have no menu boards, so customers must know what they want. Customers place their order, swipe a credit card, bypass the drive-through line, and pick up their orders at a window separate from the normal drive-through pickup window.

Plans call for a Virtual Zoom-through sometime in the future, in which customers would call in their orders and the payment would be deducted from a prepaid McDonald's card.

The Colorado Springs restaurants also each have an Internet kiosk, and most tables have Internet access hookups.

Separately, McDonald's announced Wednesday it will provide its New York, New Jersey and Connecticut customers with literature and information on how to order their favorite McDonald's food and still stay on a low-fat, low-calorie or low-carbohydrate diet.

The program, to start in January, is part of McDonald's "Real Life Choices" initiative. It is being created in part by nutritionist and wellness coach Pamela Smith.






Self Service stats - Knowledge Management CMP Media

Tuesday, October 07, 2003

New Study Predicts Call Center Spending Will Rise Silicon Valley Biz Ink :: The voice of the valley economy